观望先

转帖别人的观点【节选】，详见：http://www.propwise.sg/property-prices-at-a-turning-point/
Property Prices at a Turning Point
February 1, 2012
By Mr. Propwise
Supply in the Pipeline is at a Record High
Supply, at 77,089 uncompleted private residential units from projects in the pipeline, is at an all-time high since the URA started recording this data in 1999. At the same time volumes are falling – 4Q2011 sales of 3,603 new units (down 15% quarter-on-quarter) and 2,962 units (down 24% quarter-on-quarter) are both significant decreases.
Of this record supply, 39,184 units remain unsold as at 4Q2011 – this could present an overhang on the market for many quarters to come.
We’ve also seen widespread declines or Cash Over Valuations in the HDB market, which is a foreshadowing of a weaker private property market.

How Much Could the Market Fall?
I did a study of the previous 3 property market corrections and found that the PPI corrected in the range of 19.9% to 44.9% and that the correction lasted from 4 to 15 quarters:
2Q1996 Peak to 4Q2008 Trough – 44.9% decline over 10 quarters
2Q2000 Peak to 1Q2004 Trough – 19.9% decline over 15 quarters
2Q2008 Peak to 2Q2009 Trough – 24.9% decline over 4 quarters
If history is anything to go by, what this means is that the correction could be longer and stronger than what most people are expecting. However, I believe that we will only see similar levels of price declines if there is an external crisis to cause a sense of panic, which we had in each of the previous 3 declines (e.g. Asian Crisis, Dotcom Bubble, Global Financial Crisis).

kagekage

夜观星相，同版主预测。