hwwca

葡萄牙被降级，继现房不佳后美国新房销售差于预期。希腊问题又成了砧板上的鱼。
金融市场一塌糊涂！

goldenstar

个人认为股市回升特别突破前期高位，本帖就失去时效性了...

现在就是再下跌，只要没破10720... 也只能算是技术性回调....

金融问题，主要还得看市场反应... 昨晚涨100点，今天葡萄牙降级+房屋销售下跌，美国应该跌超过100点，也不过回到前天的水平... 目前来说，可说是置之不理...

hwwca

回复 102# goldenstar

我不是不赞同技术分析，只是要去除人为因素，才是合理的技术分析。

想一想，美国是没跌这么多，甚至还会可能尾盘收涨，美元涨1%以上完全平衡了股市下跌，资产价值没有损失。

而欧洲则是股市汇市同跌，结果是资产加快失去应有的价值。

而所有这些都出自于美国的消息与评价。你相信这是符合本来面目的股市吗？所谓市场反应是必须要符合参与其中的美国投行暂定原则与利益才行。

goldenstar

首先目前我并不是个乐观派，至少本轮大涨潮并没有带动我的乐观情绪...

我觉得目前市场需要换一种思维去面对它...

去年大涨潮，赚钱最多是3月新入市的新手... 走过2008的老手，经过洗礼虽然经验丰富，反而始终无法对市场有真正信心而错失前期涨幅... 等回过神来，已经站在高位....

但是同样走过2009的人，现在面对的是不一样的市场... 去年上升300点，是何等的百股升腾... 现在升300点，能抓到赚钱的股票没几支... 也许过几个月回头看会恍然大悟...

但是现在能够快速摸清状况，才能抓住赚钱机会，或者逃避来临的灾难...

hwwca

言之有理，不过作为一个国际投资者（即使你只盯SGX），不能不从汇率与货币股市同时去看问题。

股市似乎没事，可货币市场已经是到了生死关头了，最后集中反映到信心突然丧失和股市崩盘上。

这是我最怕发生的事情，即使我早已轻仓。

hwwca

转一条老新闻，证明评级机构是为FED和美政府所用的，即必须依令行事：

Feds target rating agencies' role in meltdown

Fed enforcement officials 'looking closely' at credit rating agencies' role in meltdown
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Enforcement officials from the Securities and Exchange Commission and Justice Department said Wednesday that their staffs are targeting the role of Wall Street rating agencies in the financial meltdown.

The three dominant agencies -- Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings -- have been widely criticized for failing to give investors adequate warning of the risks in subprime mortgage securities, whose collapse touched off the financial crisis.

SEC Enforcement Director Robert Khuzami told the Senate Judiciary Committee that his staff is "looking very closely at credit rating agencies" and is "focused on that area."

A 2007 law empowers the SEC to bring enforcement actions against rating agencies based on false statements they may have made, he said.

Assistant U.S. Attorney General Lanny Breuer said the Justice Department also is "looking at" rating agencies.

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo pursued the three big Wall Street raters last year, securing an agreement from them to overhaul how they evaluate investments backed by risky mortgage debt. The accord was meant to end what the industry calls "ratings shopping" that pits the agencies against one another.

The agencies are crucial financial gatekeepers. Their grades of creditworthiness can be key factors in determining at what cost securities will be purchased by banks, mutual funds, state pension funds or local governments.

Khuzami, Breuer and Kevin Perkins, assistant director of the FBI's Criminal Investigative Division, detailed federal efforts to pursue fraud and rising abuses in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Mortgage fraud, which spiked to record levels in the wake of the subprime loan collapse in 2007, is an especially intense area of focus by federal and state prosecutors. Mortgage fraud investigations by the FBI now total more than 2,700, compared with 881 three years ago.

The Justice Department "has redoubled its efforts to uncover abuses involving mortgage lending" and related fraud schemes, Breuer testified. "We're prosecuting those cases around the country."

Charges related to mortgage fraud are pending against about 500 individuals and firms nationwide, he said.

The financial distress also has revealed a growing number of pyramid investment schemes that were undetected in stronger economic times -- the highest-profile being the multibillion-dollar fraud by Bernard Madoff that continued for nearly two decades, the officials said.

"A week doesn't go by" without a new Ponzi case being opened, Perkins told the panel.

Sen. Ted Kaufman, D-Del., who chaired the hearing, said to restore the public's faith in the financial markets, "We must identify, prosecute and send to prison the participants in those markets who broke the law."

The SEC and the Justice Department have conducted wide-ranging investigations of big companies across the financial services industry that blew up in the crisis. But a year after the catastrophe struck, charges haven't yet come in most of the probes.

Spokesmen for Moody's and Fitch Ratings didn't respond to telephone calls seeking comment Wednesday evening. A spokesman for Standard & Poor's had no immediate comment.

hwwca

下面这条新闻告诉你，美国这几天在大量卖5年期的420亿国債。这与股市无理性再涨，美元狂升，葡萄牙评级被降“碰巧”遇到一起。

U.S. Debt Falls as 5-Year Sale Draws Higher Yield Than Forecast

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By Cordell Eddings and Daniel Kruger

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell after the government’s record-tying $42 billion sale of five-year notes drew a higher yield than analysts forecast.

The securities yielded 2.605 percent, compared with an average estimate of 2.556 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 8 of the Federal Reserve’s 18 primary dealers.

“The market is not as excited about taking on more duration risk after the weaker auction yesterday and the positive economic news,” Carl Lantz, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Credit Suisse Group AG, said before the auction results. Duration is a measure of bond price sensitivity to interest-rate change.

The current five-year note yield rose 15 basis points, or 0.15 percentage point, to 2.570 percent at 1:03 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data.

Today’s auction was the second of three note sales this week totaling $118 billion. The bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing total bids with the amount of securities offered, was 2.55, compared with 2.75 at the last five-year sale on Feb. 24 and a 2.53 average for the past 10 offerings. The notes at the February auction drew a yield of 2.395 percent.

Indirect bidders, a class of investors that includes foreign central banks, purchased 39.7 percent of the notes. At the February sale, they bought 40.3 percent.

U.S. Borrowing

President Barack Obama has increased U.S. marketable debt to an unprecedented $7.41 trillion to fund a budget deficit the government predicts will swell to a record $1.6 trillion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30.

The five-year note’s yield earlier rose as durable goods orders rose last month for a third straight month and the 10- year U.S. swap spread was negative for a second day as Fitch Ratings’s downgrade of Portugal raised the risk of owning sovereign debt and corporate bond issuance surged.

The 10-year U.S. swap spread turned negative for the first time on record yesterday. The gap between the rate to exchange floating- for fixed-interest payments and comparable-maturity Treasury yields for 10 years shrank to negative 7.3 basis points today, the narrowest since at least 1988, when Bloomberg began collecting the data.

Evidence the economy is strengthening has bolstered demand for corporate bonds and helped push swap spreads lower as borrowers convert fixed coupons to floating, said David Tien, a money manager in New York at Fischer Francis Trees & Watts, which manages $19 billion in assets.

Company Debt

Sale of investment-grade company debt has increased to $79.8 billion this month from $53.4 billion for all of February, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Offerings of high-risk, high-yield securities have risen 10-fold to $22.7 billion from $2 billion a year ago, the figures show.

Orders for long-lasting goods advanced 0.5 percent in February after a 3.9 percent gain in the previous month, the Commerce Department reported today. Excluding transportation equipment, orders climbed 0.9 percent, more than the median forecast of 45 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Short-term borrowing costs climbed as traders added to bets the economic expansion will prompt the Fed to raise rates from a record low zero to 0.25 percent this year or next. The London interbank offered rate that banks charge each other to borrow in dollars for three months rose to 0.28491 percent today, the highest level since September.

Interest-rate futures on the CME Group Inc. exchange indicate a 47 percent chance the Fed will raise the zero to 0.25 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by at least a quarter-percentage point by September, up from 36 percent odds a month ago.

Yellen on Rates

San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said in a speech in Los Angeles yesterday that while it’s too soon to raise interest rates now, policy makers will be ready to do so “when the time has come.”

At yesterday’s record-tying $44 billion two-year note auction, investors bid for 3 times the amount on offer, the lowest since December’s sale. The average bid-to-cover ratio for the past 10 auctions was 3.10.

The government will auction a record-tying $32 billion of seven-year notes tomorrow.

To contact the reporters on this story: Cordell Eddings in New York at [email protected]; Daniel Kruger in New York at [email protected]

hwwca

你还相信技术分析是：完全遵循我们中学知道的布朗运动和概率中的大样本统计原理。
中国人不能吃受过污染的菜蔬，同样也不要涉足受过污染的市场。
再补上这条新闻，

Why the Bond Auction Fizzled: Fears of a 'Fiscal Train Wreck'
BONDS, TREASURYS, TREASURY, DEBT, TREASURIES, T-BILLS, 30-YEAR BOND, 10-YEAR NOTES, 2-YEAR NOTES, ECONOMY, STOCK MARKET NEWS, 5-YEAR, AUCTION, DEMAND, YIELD, RECESSION
Posted By: Steve Liesman | Senior Economics Reporter
cnbc.com
| 24 Mar 2010 | 05:30 PM ET
The results of today's Treasury auction were a shot across the bow of the government.

And, according to David Zervos, head of fixed income strategy at Jeffries, may be an indication of just how skittish some investors are feeling about the fiscal soundness of the United States, in light of big government spending for health care and other costly programs.

“It’s the health-care realization trade,” Zervos told CNBC, post-auction, from the firm’s trading floor. “We’re coming to grips with the fact that we have a Congress that’s ready to go, and spend.”

Zervos, who worked at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC last year as a visiting advisor, also characterized the government’s recent initiatives as a “fiscal train wreck” that shows a lack of restraint. He predicted the health-care bill will yield trillions of dollars in debt (marketable).

Investors showed scant interest in the latest round of debt auctions: Depressed demand today in five-year note sales pushed Treasury yields up. The $42 billion sale drew a yield of 2.065 percent, full 10 basis points, or 0.10 percentage points—up from the where the five-year was trading when the results came out at 1 p.m.

Jefferies’ Chief Financial Economist Ward McCarthy agreed with his colleague and told CNBC, “There’s a lot of concern about what’s happening on a fiscal basis. We have enormous budget deficiencies, and Congress and the Administration really have done nothing to address that. In fact, the recent legislation on health care is going to increase our budget deficits by over a trillion dollars.”

In a related discussion, McCarthy also told CNBC the economic rebound is moving forward, but his expectations were muted: He predicted a “fair to middling” recovery, and added that “it’s going to take some time before we generate strong growth.”

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This story was reported by Steve Liesman and written by Michelle Lodge

© 2010 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/36017859/

大浪淘一粒沙

问题是美元升值了，国债卖完了会怎么样？美国经济有救了，全球股市就转好了，不是吗？

phileas

感觉市场已经被各国用来玩起了政治，中国跌，美国涨 这些都貌似都是为了利益需要
如果现在的担忧是崩盘。。。
我也不知说啥，不过风险是有的，见风使舵是必要的。。。