【股票】不是赢家就是输家@谁敢说自己是专家？

靚剑

在股市里，事实上没有人能够准确预知明天股市是会涨还是跌，没有人会知道某支股票是会涨多少？其实大家就像在猜俄罗斯轮盘到底是开大还是开小，很多分析于是出来，有人说连开三次大这次应该开小，也有人说这次还是会开大。所以何时会涨？那一支可以买？是不是该卖？諸如此类的问题，问了等于白问，答案是天下没有人知道正确的答案。停止浪费时间研究这方面的问题，投资理财只要你有长期持有的耐心，你不需要是专家，你也能成为赢家。

Harry9009

我的神呀，你让我崇拜到死，伟大的印度人。

Harry9009

巴菲特，夜夜讲，日日讲的就是这个道理。

seeyu

但股市里99%是投机者，只有1% 是投资者，我也是投机者。有的投机者不分青红皂白，只要有人说某股开涨了就想也不想进了再说。当别人已出来时，他可能还在等涨。站在200日均线以下的股也敢进。

busydying

的确，股市没有专家这一说。
像楼上说的那样，像巴菲特那样做价值投资的真的100个人里只有一两个。
巴老说，对一只股票，如果你不打算把它拿三年，五年，甚至十年，那你连五分钟都不要拿它。
米版的多次引用话：长线是金，短线是银。金还是比银贵的。
花时间做公司的内在价值研究吧。

老鼠爱小米

股票，不可能一买就涨。但是，很容易一买就跌，一卖就涨。

只有拿着，不赚钱不卖，这样才是赢家。

我自我检讨，我要做价值投资了，不做投机了。

倒来倒去，只能是替证券公司打工。

hwwca

注意这篇号角文的时间和老巴的GE什么时候才能出水。


Buy American. I Am.
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By WARREN E. BUFFETT
Published: October 16, 2008
Omaha
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Brad Holland
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THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.

靚剑

股票，不可能一买就涨。但是，很容易一买就跌，一卖就涨。

只有拿着，不赚钱不卖，这样才是赢家。

我自我 ...
老鼠爱小米 发表于 25-10-2009 00:59

短线进出操作股票就是投机/赌博，它们的特点就是输多赢少。我们常见周遭短线操作股票的投资人，大都是投机获利时意气风发，亏损时通常是不见人影。事实上，这些短线进出操作的人，通常是以亏损收场的。

老鼠爱小米

短线进出操作股票就是投机/赌博，它们的特点就是输多赢少。我们常见周遭短线操作股票的投资人，大都是投 ...
靚剑 发表于 2009-10-26 17:11

嗯，说得对，支持，我的股票要拿久点了。

古道

说的都对，不过也得看时机，在低谷是你买进了，拿住当然赚钱，你可以说不赚钱不出，在顶部时，如果还这样。可能就赔大了。我自己总结了，时机比价钱重要的多。